Step 1. Secure Democratic Nomination
Obama just about 150 delegates away from the nomination, with 217 state and 246 Superdelegates yet to decide. That's about 33% of the remaining vote that Obama needs to win. If all states and Superdelegates go 33% Obama, 67% Clinton...Obama wins. So, Step 1 is pretty secure.
Nonetheless, tomorrow's West Virginia primary is going to show a HUGE win for Clinton...in percentages. She could win by 20, 30 , even 40 points. Even so, should she win by 100%, she would win 28 delegates. And she needs over 320.
Step 2. Remind Americans of the Iraq War
Polls show that roughly 68% of Americans oppose the war in Iraq...and also about 68% want some, or all troops pulled out.
Obama opposed the war from the start, and has a withdrawal timetable to force the Iraqi government to get its act together. McCain supports the war and would stay in Iraq another 100 years. And why are we even there?
Step 3. Explain the Future of Oil
McCain wants a summer gas holiday. That costs the government $15,000,000,000 in tax collection, gives Big Oil $15,000,000,000 to either take off their gas price, or pocket for themselves, and saves each American about $20-30.
Obama opposes the plan...and has an environmentally-geared program to reduce pollution, reduce dependence on foreign oil, find and implement alternate fuels, reduce the impact of America on the environment, and impose profit-based taxation on oil to reduce gas prices.
Step 4. McCain = Bush = Same
McCain and Bush, while different in many ways, have the same IRAQ and ECONOMIC policies. Most Americans agree, IRAQ and the ECONOMY are the most pressing issues in this election. Should we vote for 4 more years of G.W. Bush policy on these vital issues?
Step 5. Conquer the Map
Obama has shown he has influence in the 30+ states he has won so far. For others, like PA and OH, which voted Clinton in the Democratic primary, Obama, working with Clinton, should be able to convince voters that much of the same policies Clinton supports are supported by Obama. Once Obama secures the Clinton vote, he will be unstoppable.
That's how and why Obama will be our next President. He will be our youngest and first multi-racial President, not to mention the candidate to raise the most money from supporters of his cause.
OBAMA '08!
Showing posts with label delegate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label delegate. Show all posts
Monday, May 12, 2008
Thursday, May 1, 2008
CNN Democratic Delegate Calculator
CNN, known for it's left-leaning news, is, of course, my ideal source of information.
I don't actually understand why they are seen as a left-leaning news corporation at all. I mean, FOX News, that's clearly right-leaning. Why? You could say it's because their interviewers always grill liberals with tough questions, interrupt their answers, and paint them in extremely negative lights. You could say it's because they run stories based on E-mail rumors, that actually turn out to be bogus. So how do they stay in business as a leading source of news? That's for another post. But as far as CNN goes; I don't get it. CNN doesn't run false or misleading stories about Republicans (only the New York Times does that). CNN doesn't falsify information to make it seem like the environment is headed down a path of doom and the economy is tanking. Though, they don't need to falsify that information; everyone already knows it.
My point: CNN has virtually no bias, they simply state facts. Facts are disconcerting to conservatives, because facts show that Bush's approval rating is the lowest of all time, that global warming is real, that evolution is real, and that gravity is real. Yes, startling.
But back to the point of this post. CNN has an interesting page in their Politics section: The CNN Democratic Delegate Calculator. The way it works is, you slide little sliders for each remaining Democratic Primary state toward Obama or Clinton, to control the percentage of the vote you think they will get in that state. Delegates are then distributed based on your predictions, and you can see how the election could turn out. There is also a section for Superdelegates.
So, I was inspired to try a little experiment. I gave Hillary Clinton (currently behind in delegates) a 56% to 44% lead in every state, and even the same 56/44 in Superdelegates. After all, she won Pennsylvania by 10 percentage points, so let's assume, best case scenario (for her), she does about as well again in every remaining contest. This is extremely unlikely; she was expected to win PA by a lot of points anyway, and she's NOT expected to win everything else, but let's assume. So I gave her a very definite 8 point lead in everything, even Superdelegates (giving her 165 and leaving only 129 for Obama).
Guess what? Total scores: Clinton, 1,986 delegates. Obama, 2,040 delegates. Wow. Obama wins the nomination; Clinton doesn't even qualify.
"But, wait!" people scream, "That's not accurate! Superdelegates could go 15, 20, 25 points toward a certain candidate! We don't know what they'll do!" OK, fair enough. So I took on a second experiment.
Let's assume Clinton wins all the states by 8 points. Now, what does she need to win Superdelegates by to win? If she wins Superdelegates 65% to 35% - an amazing 30 point victory - guess what? Obama wins the nomination - by 2 delegates. So, in order to get close to Obama, Clinton needs 30% more Superdelegates than Obama has.
In light of these statistics, I believe I can say with fair certainty that Obama will be the Democratic Nominee. Unfortunately for John McCain, who probably doesn't know how to use a computer, let alone read a Blog or go on CNN, he won't know this until the convention in August. Until then, he has to split up his efforts between Clinton and Obama - and we all know how exhausting that is for a man of his age.
So, Obama will most likely be the nominee. Does this mean that voting is as pointless for Democrats as it is for the Republicans? No. Whereas the Republicans chose a leader after just a few states, creating the momentum and pressure needed to force all competitors out of running and ensure that the remaining states' votes would not decide anyone but McCain, the Democrats are more...democratic. We count everyone's vote (unless they live in Michigan or Florida) up until the end. So please, go out and vote! Whether it's for Senator Obama, or that other person running, your vote DOES matter.
People whine about how unfair it is that the Superdelegates will decide the nomination. But that's simply not true. The Superdelegates just so happen to be voting last. The whole country had a chance to vote. If every state voted so that, come the Democratic Convention, one candidate had a clear lead, the Superdelegates wouldn't make a difference. Pretend, for a moment, that the Superdelegates vote first. Let's say they go 60/40 for Clinton, and THEN the rest of the country votes. Now, it appears as though the people decide the election. It's just how you look at it. If the Democrats can clearly come out in favor of someone, then the Superdelegates cannot override that support. In fact, they would most likely support the people's choice.
The point of the entire post: Obama will likely be the nominee, but we still all need to vote. OK, not everyone. Just people in North Carolina (115), Indiana (72), Puerto Rico (55), Oregon (52), Kentucky (51), West Virginia (28), Montana (16), South Dakota (15), and Guam (4). Wait - since when is Puerto Rico more important than 5 REAL states?
I don't actually understand why they are seen as a left-leaning news corporation at all. I mean, FOX News, that's clearly right-leaning. Why? You could say it's because their interviewers always grill liberals with tough questions, interrupt their answers, and paint them in extremely negative lights. You could say it's because they run stories based on E-mail rumors, that actually turn out to be bogus. So how do they stay in business as a leading source of news? That's for another post. But as far as CNN goes; I don't get it. CNN doesn't run false or misleading stories about Republicans (only the New York Times does that). CNN doesn't falsify information to make it seem like the environment is headed down a path of doom and the economy is tanking. Though, they don't need to falsify that information; everyone already knows it.
My point: CNN has virtually no bias, they simply state facts. Facts are disconcerting to conservatives, because facts show that Bush's approval rating is the lowest of all time, that global warming is real, that evolution is real, and that gravity is real. Yes, startling.
But back to the point of this post. CNN has an interesting page in their Politics section: The CNN Democratic Delegate Calculator. The way it works is, you slide little sliders for each remaining Democratic Primary state toward Obama or Clinton, to control the percentage of the vote you think they will get in that state. Delegates are then distributed based on your predictions, and you can see how the election could turn out. There is also a section for Superdelegates.
So, I was inspired to try a little experiment. I gave Hillary Clinton (currently behind in delegates) a 56% to 44% lead in every state, and even the same 56/44 in Superdelegates. After all, she won Pennsylvania by 10 percentage points, so let's assume, best case scenario (for her), she does about as well again in every remaining contest. This is extremely unlikely; she was expected to win PA by a lot of points anyway, and she's NOT expected to win everything else, but let's assume. So I gave her a very definite 8 point lead in everything, even Superdelegates (giving her 165 and leaving only 129 for Obama).
Guess what? Total scores: Clinton, 1,986 delegates. Obama, 2,040 delegates. Wow. Obama wins the nomination; Clinton doesn't even qualify.
"But, wait!" people scream, "That's not accurate! Superdelegates could go 15, 20, 25 points toward a certain candidate! We don't know what they'll do!" OK, fair enough. So I took on a second experiment.
Let's assume Clinton wins all the states by 8 points. Now, what does she need to win Superdelegates by to win? If she wins Superdelegates 65% to 35% - an amazing 30 point victory - guess what? Obama wins the nomination - by 2 delegates. So, in order to get close to Obama, Clinton needs 30% more Superdelegates than Obama has.
In light of these statistics, I believe I can say with fair certainty that Obama will be the Democratic Nominee. Unfortunately for John McCain, who probably doesn't know how to use a computer, let alone read a Blog or go on CNN, he won't know this until the convention in August. Until then, he has to split up his efforts between Clinton and Obama - and we all know how exhausting that is for a man of his age.
So, Obama will most likely be the nominee. Does this mean that voting is as pointless for Democrats as it is for the Republicans? No. Whereas the Republicans chose a leader after just a few states, creating the momentum and pressure needed to force all competitors out of running and ensure that the remaining states' votes would not decide anyone but McCain, the Democrats are more...democratic. We count everyone's vote (unless they live in Michigan or Florida) up until the end. So please, go out and vote! Whether it's for Senator Obama, or that other person running, your vote DOES matter.
People whine about how unfair it is that the Superdelegates will decide the nomination. But that's simply not true. The Superdelegates just so happen to be voting last. The whole country had a chance to vote. If every state voted so that, come the Democratic Convention, one candidate had a clear lead, the Superdelegates wouldn't make a difference. Pretend, for a moment, that the Superdelegates vote first. Let's say they go 60/40 for Clinton, and THEN the rest of the country votes. Now, it appears as though the people decide the election. It's just how you look at it. If the Democrats can clearly come out in favor of someone, then the Superdelegates cannot override that support. In fact, they would most likely support the people's choice.
The point of the entire post: Obama will likely be the nominee, but we still all need to vote. OK, not everyone. Just people in North Carolina (115), Indiana (72), Puerto Rico (55), Oregon (52), Kentucky (51), West Virginia (28), Montana (16), South Dakota (15), and Guam (4). Wait - since when is Puerto Rico more important than 5 REAL states?
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