Step 1. Secure Democratic Nomination
Obama just about 150 delegates away from the nomination, with 217 state and 246 Superdelegates yet to decide. That's about 33% of the remaining vote that Obama needs to win. If all states and Superdelegates go 33% Obama, 67% Clinton...Obama wins. So, Step 1 is pretty secure.
Nonetheless, tomorrow's West Virginia primary is going to show a HUGE win for Clinton...in percentages. She could win by 20, 30 , even 40 points. Even so, should she win by 100%, she would win 28 delegates. And she needs over 320.
Step 2. Remind Americans of the Iraq War
Polls show that roughly 68% of Americans oppose the war in Iraq...and also about 68% want some, or all troops pulled out.
Obama opposed the war from the start, and has a withdrawal timetable to force the Iraqi government to get its act together. McCain supports the war and would stay in Iraq another 100 years. And why are we even there?
Step 3. Explain the Future of Oil
McCain wants a summer gas holiday. That costs the government $15,000,000,000 in tax collection, gives Big Oil $15,000,000,000 to either take off their gas price, or pocket for themselves, and saves each American about $20-30.
Obama opposes the plan...and has an environmentally-geared program to reduce pollution, reduce dependence on foreign oil, find and implement alternate fuels, reduce the impact of America on the environment, and impose profit-based taxation on oil to reduce gas prices.
Step 4. McCain = Bush = Same
McCain and Bush, while different in many ways, have the same IRAQ and ECONOMIC policies. Most Americans agree, IRAQ and the ECONOMY are the most pressing issues in this election. Should we vote for 4 more years of G.W. Bush policy on these vital issues?
Step 5. Conquer the Map
Obama has shown he has influence in the 30+ states he has won so far. For others, like PA and OH, which voted Clinton in the Democratic primary, Obama, working with Clinton, should be able to convince voters that much of the same policies Clinton supports are supported by Obama. Once Obama secures the Clinton vote, he will be unstoppable.
That's how and why Obama will be our next President. He will be our youngest and first multi-racial President, not to mention the candidate to raise the most money from supporters of his cause.
OBAMA '08!
Showing posts with label obama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label obama. Show all posts
Monday, May 12, 2008
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Florida and Michigan
For people who haven't been following up on the news:
Florida and Michigan decided early on to ignore the DNC rules and hold their primaries whenever they felt like it. They moved up their primaries so that they could be in the spotlight. The DNC punished them by discounting their delegates.
210 delegates from Florida, 156 from Michigan. As you can imagine, residents of the two states are annoyed.
Some people argue that the F&M votes should count, especially Clinton supporters - Clinton won both primaries by a large margin. However, people should remember that Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan...and neither candidate campaigned a single second in Florida! So, the fact that Clinton won, means nothing. If F&M's votes were to count, the two candidates would have to campaign there, wasting time, money, and resources. Ultimately, there would most likely be a close tie, perhaps even in Clinton's favor. But the fact is, if 366 more delegates are added into the mix, and Obama can claim 183 of them...he has the nomination. Because that's how far he is from winning. Even if that doesn't happen, Obama and Clinton would both move up, the gap wouldn't get much smaller, and we'd be where we are today.
So, it wouldn't allow Clinton a chance EVEN IF F&M voted. But they won't vote. Why? Because they broke party rules, and to pardon them now for no reason other than that Clinton wants them pardoned simply makes no sense. The democrat of '08 is Obama. The only reason Clinton wants votes is to show she's almost as good as he is...maybe vice presidentially good?
Florida and Michigan decided early on to ignore the DNC rules and hold their primaries whenever they felt like it. They moved up their primaries so that they could be in the spotlight. The DNC punished them by discounting their delegates.
210 delegates from Florida, 156 from Michigan. As you can imagine, residents of the two states are annoyed.
Some people argue that the F&M votes should count, especially Clinton supporters - Clinton won both primaries by a large margin. However, people should remember that Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan...and neither candidate campaigned a single second in Florida! So, the fact that Clinton won, means nothing. If F&M's votes were to count, the two candidates would have to campaign there, wasting time, money, and resources. Ultimately, there would most likely be a close tie, perhaps even in Clinton's favor. But the fact is, if 366 more delegates are added into the mix, and Obama can claim 183 of them...he has the nomination. Because that's how far he is from winning. Even if that doesn't happen, Obama and Clinton would both move up, the gap wouldn't get much smaller, and we'd be where we are today.So, it wouldn't allow Clinton a chance EVEN IF F&M voted. But they won't vote. Why? Because they broke party rules, and to pardon them now for no reason other than that Clinton wants them pardoned simply makes no sense. The democrat of '08 is Obama. The only reason Clinton wants votes is to show she's almost as good as he is...maybe vice presidentially good?
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Clinton's Chance is Gone; Time to Switch to Obama
Tonight, Obama won NC by 14 points, Clinton won Indiana by 2 points. And NC is worth more, too. Yet, whereas Obama's speech congratulated her and attacked McCain, hers subtly attacked Obama! And she had the audacity to claim that PA was hers, NC was Obama's, and Indiana was a tie breaker. Are you kidding? She wins PA by 10 and Indiana by 2, Obama wins NC by 14 - where's the tie breaker? And now Obama's up by about 150 delegates...and less than 200 away from the nomination. 200 Superdelegates vote for Obama, and he wins. How does Clinton have a chance?
CNN Delegate Counter Statistic: If all the remaining states are a wash, of the 277 undecided Superdelegates, Clinton would need to win 84% of them to beat Obama. 84 to 16? A 68 point lead? I don't think so. If Clinton wins the remaining states, each by 20 points (a 60/40 split), she needs 77% of the remaining Superdelegates.
Nonetheless, she keeps going. She has her fans screaming, she has people rilled up. She thinks she can win. It's NOT HAPPENING, and the sooner Democrats realize that Obama is our guy, the better. Because the B.S. about Clinton supporters who "won't vote Obama" is B.S. Come on people, McCain is the next George Bush! Everyone knows Clinton & Obama are almost identical on issues. Think of it like a movie tralier, or book review. If you liked "THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN" starring "Hillary Clinton", you'll love our new release - "OBAMA 08" with the SAME IDEAS.
So please people...get over Clinton fast, because if we're gonna beat the Republicans, it's not by siding with their oil tax move that serves NO PURPOSE other than it looks good. And it's not by being divided, when Obama is the only candidate left who can claim the nomination. It's not much of a stretch for me to say, now, Obama IS our nominee. We NEED him in the white house in '08.
A vote for...
CNN Delegate Counter Statistic: If all the remaining states are a wash, of the 277 undecided Superdelegates, Clinton would need to win 84% of them to beat Obama. 84 to 16? A 68 point lead? I don't think so. If Clinton wins the remaining states, each by 20 points (a 60/40 split), she needs 77% of the remaining Superdelegates.
Nonetheless, she keeps going. She has her fans screaming, she has people rilled up. She thinks she can win. It's NOT HAPPENING, and the sooner Democrats realize that Obama is our guy, the better. Because the B.S. about Clinton supporters who "won't vote Obama" is B.S. Come on people, McCain is the next George Bush! Everyone knows Clinton & Obama are almost identical on issues. Think of it like a movie tralier, or book review. If you liked "THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN" starring "Hillary Clinton", you'll love our new release - "OBAMA 08" with the SAME IDEAS.So please people...get over Clinton fast, because if we're gonna beat the Republicans, it's not by siding with their oil tax move that serves NO PURPOSE other than it looks good. And it's not by being divided, when Obama is the only candidate left who can claim the nomination. It's not much of a stretch for me to say, now, Obama IS our nominee. We NEED him in the white house in '08.
A vote for...
- McCain
- Paul
- Nader
- No One
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Oops! I Meant "WMDs"
Yesterday, John McCain made a speaking "error", but, unlike his best friend, Mr. G. W. Bush, McCain didn't mispronounce nuclear. Instead, he accidentally told the American people, more or less, that we went into Iraq for oil. Now there's a surprise.
Of course, McCain says that his comment was misinterpreted. By all means, please, interpret it for yourself:
"My friends, I will have an energy policy that we will be talking about, which will eliminate our dependence on oil from the Middle East that will prevent us from having ever to send our young men and women into conflict again in the Middle East"
That's right. He has an energy policy that will eliminate dependence on oil from the Middle East, so that we won't have to keep going to war there. That's what he actually said. Really. Not edited. But McCain claims he was referring the the Gulf War (you know, the one between Iran and Iraq). So there's no correlation to the Iraq war of today. Of course not.
You see, McCain backed the Iraq War (along with Hillary Clinton) in the beginning, but unlike Clinton, he still supports Bush's war. After all, McCain is fine with staying in there fore 100 years; maybe more!
While we're on the subject of Bush and McCain and the war, check out http://MoveOn.org. You should find it interesting. There, you can learn about all kinds of neat stuff - like how incredibly similar McCain is to Bush. Enjoy!
In other news today: Top Stories that mean NOTHING:
-Barack Obama wins Guam by 7 votes. Talk about having your voice heard! Anyway, he and Clinton share the 4 delegates awarded, giving each another 2. This doesn't mean much to anyone at all.
-New polls show that Rev. Wright concerns many Americans. Big deal. Why am I not concerned? 1. Because Obama just severed his connection with Wright, and 2. Because "many Americans" doesn't mean squat. The ONLY Americans that matter now are those in the few remaining states yet to vote, and the few hundred Superdelegates. So as long as "most" Americans means those that already voted, and most Americans have, polls mean nothing.
-115 delegates are up for grabs in North Carolina. Obama is expected to win, and a CNN "poll of polls" made up by averaging various OTHER polls (in other words, 'borrowing' other people's work and calling it your own, like 'Google Images' or 'Answers.com', none of which I mean any dislike) shows him ahead by 9 points. So, they ran an article that Clinton is "gaining" because yesterday the poll said he was up by 10 points. She's gaining? The margin of error there has to be at least 5 points, so who are they kidding? The pollsters know NOTHING. But, if you want my educated guess: Obama wins by about 7 points. The gas tax holiday should hurt her...Obama's doing a good job of saying how McCain/Bush-ish the plan is. But really, no one knows what will happen.
Of course, McCain says that his comment was misinterpreted. By all means, please, interpret it for yourself:
"My friends, I will have an energy policy that we will be talking about, which will eliminate our dependence on oil from the Middle East that will prevent us from having ever to send our young men and women into conflict again in the Middle East"
That's right. He has an energy policy that will eliminate dependence on oil from the Middle East, so that we won't have to keep going to war there. That's what he actually said. Really. Not edited. But McCain claims he was referring the the Gulf War (you know, the one between Iran and Iraq). So there's no correlation to the Iraq war of today. Of course not.
You see, McCain backed the Iraq War (along with Hillary Clinton) in the beginning, but unlike Clinton, he still supports Bush's war. After all, McCain is fine with staying in there fore 100 years; maybe more!
While we're on the subject of Bush and McCain and the war, check out http://MoveOn.org. You should find it interesting. There, you can learn about all kinds of neat stuff - like how incredibly similar McCain is to Bush. Enjoy!
In other news today: Top Stories that mean NOTHING:
-Barack Obama wins Guam by 7 votes. Talk about having your voice heard! Anyway, he and Clinton share the 4 delegates awarded, giving each another 2. This doesn't mean much to anyone at all.
-New polls show that Rev. Wright concerns many Americans. Big deal. Why am I not concerned? 1. Because Obama just severed his connection with Wright, and 2. Because "many Americans" doesn't mean squat. The ONLY Americans that matter now are those in the few remaining states yet to vote, and the few hundred Superdelegates. So as long as "most" Americans means those that already voted, and most Americans have, polls mean nothing.
-115 delegates are up for grabs in North Carolina. Obama is expected to win, and a CNN "poll of polls" made up by averaging various OTHER polls (in other words, 'borrowing' other people's work and calling it your own, like 'Google Images' or 'Answers.com', none of which I mean any dislike) shows him ahead by 9 points. So, they ran an article that Clinton is "gaining" because yesterday the poll said he was up by 10 points. She's gaining? The margin of error there has to be at least 5 points, so who are they kidding? The pollsters know NOTHING. But, if you want my educated guess: Obama wins by about 7 points. The gas tax holiday should hurt her...Obama's doing a good job of saying how McCain/Bush-ish the plan is. But really, no one knows what will happen.
Friday, May 2, 2008
McCain's Bright Idea
John McCain, Republican presumptive nominee for the presidency, has come out with a plan - one designed to solve our oil crisis and stabilize the economy.
NOT. McCain wants to remove the tax on gas over the summer months. What does this actually mean? It means the oil companies won't have to pay any tax for three months! And this is supposed to drive DOWN costs? Yeah, right! I predict (and many analysis agree) that big oil will keep the price the same...even higher, perhaps...and just pocket the extra $10 billion.
But even if the oil price doesn't rise...guess what the tax on oil is? It's about 18 cents a gallon. OK, so McCain wants to save every American $0.18 per gallon. Let's say your tank fills up on 12 gallons. That's $2.16 you save for every full tank of gas! Over the three months of summer, let's assume you fill up every week. You save $26! Wow, what a break. I'm glad I voted for McCain - he bought my vote for $26.
It gets better. Any idea what this will cost the government? Let's consider for a moment that we're in trillions of dollars in debt, we still need to pay for the Iraq war, and the economy SUCKS. So, McCain's plan gives everyone $26...and costs the treasury $10 billion in tax collection. This is as bad as Bush's government hand-out...give the Americans some pocket change, and it costs the government INSANE amounts of cash.
This, coming from the guy who wants to fix our economy? Who we're supposed to trust to preserve our environment and not hand it over to the oil companies?
OK - my favorite part. His plan is supported by NONE OTHER that the one - the only:
On the opposition? Barack Obama. His plan? Don't give the oil companies a BREAK. Create a tax on oil based on profit - the more they charge, the harsher the tax - one that, at current rates, would cost them $15 billion a year - that Obama would use (a small part of) to give tax breaks to working class Americans.
NOT. McCain wants to remove the tax on gas over the summer months. What does this actually mean? It means the oil companies won't have to pay any tax for three months! And this is supposed to drive DOWN costs? Yeah, right! I predict (and many analysis agree) that big oil will keep the price the same...even higher, perhaps...and just pocket the extra $10 billion.But even if the oil price doesn't rise...guess what the tax on oil is? It's about 18 cents a gallon. OK, so McCain wants to save every American $0.18 per gallon. Let's say your tank fills up on 12 gallons. That's $2.16 you save for every full tank of gas! Over the three months of summer, let's assume you fill up every week. You save $26! Wow, what a break. I'm glad I voted for McCain - he bought my vote for $26.
It gets better. Any idea what this will cost the government? Let's consider for a moment that we're in trillions of dollars in debt, we still need to pay for the Iraq war, and the economy SUCKS. So, McCain's plan gives everyone $26...and costs the treasury $10 billion in tax collection. This is as bad as Bush's government hand-out...give the Americans some pocket change, and it costs the government INSANE amounts of cash.
This, coming from the guy who wants to fix our economy? Who we're supposed to trust to preserve our environment and not hand it over to the oil companies?
OK - my favorite part. His plan is supported by NONE OTHER that the one - the only:
HILLARY CLINTON.
On the opposition? Barack Obama. His plan? Don't give the oil companies a BREAK. Create a tax on oil based on profit - the more they charge, the harsher the tax - one that, at current rates, would cost them $15 billion a year - that Obama would use (a small part of) to give tax breaks to working class Americans.Thursday, May 1, 2008
CNN Democratic Delegate Calculator
CNN, known for it's left-leaning news, is, of course, my ideal source of information.
I don't actually understand why they are seen as a left-leaning news corporation at all. I mean, FOX News, that's clearly right-leaning. Why? You could say it's because their interviewers always grill liberals with tough questions, interrupt their answers, and paint them in extremely negative lights. You could say it's because they run stories based on E-mail rumors, that actually turn out to be bogus. So how do they stay in business as a leading source of news? That's for another post. But as far as CNN goes; I don't get it. CNN doesn't run false or misleading stories about Republicans (only the New York Times does that). CNN doesn't falsify information to make it seem like the environment is headed down a path of doom and the economy is tanking. Though, they don't need to falsify that information; everyone already knows it.
My point: CNN has virtually no bias, they simply state facts. Facts are disconcerting to conservatives, because facts show that Bush's approval rating is the lowest of all time, that global warming is real, that evolution is real, and that gravity is real. Yes, startling.
But back to the point of this post. CNN has an interesting page in their Politics section: The CNN Democratic Delegate Calculator. The way it works is, you slide little sliders for each remaining Democratic Primary state toward Obama or Clinton, to control the percentage of the vote you think they will get in that state. Delegates are then distributed based on your predictions, and you can see how the election could turn out. There is also a section for Superdelegates.
So, I was inspired to try a little experiment. I gave Hillary Clinton (currently behind in delegates) a 56% to 44% lead in every state, and even the same 56/44 in Superdelegates. After all, she won Pennsylvania by 10 percentage points, so let's assume, best case scenario (for her), she does about as well again in every remaining contest. This is extremely unlikely; she was expected to win PA by a lot of points anyway, and she's NOT expected to win everything else, but let's assume. So I gave her a very definite 8 point lead in everything, even Superdelegates (giving her 165 and leaving only 129 for Obama).
Guess what? Total scores: Clinton, 1,986 delegates. Obama, 2,040 delegates. Wow. Obama wins the nomination; Clinton doesn't even qualify.
"But, wait!" people scream, "That's not accurate! Superdelegates could go 15, 20, 25 points toward a certain candidate! We don't know what they'll do!" OK, fair enough. So I took on a second experiment.
Let's assume Clinton wins all the states by 8 points. Now, what does she need to win Superdelegates by to win? If she wins Superdelegates 65% to 35% - an amazing 30 point victory - guess what? Obama wins the nomination - by 2 delegates. So, in order to get close to Obama, Clinton needs 30% more Superdelegates than Obama has.
In light of these statistics, I believe I can say with fair certainty that Obama will be the Democratic Nominee. Unfortunately for John McCain, who probably doesn't know how to use a computer, let alone read a Blog or go on CNN, he won't know this until the convention in August. Until then, he has to split up his efforts between Clinton and Obama - and we all know how exhausting that is for a man of his age.
So, Obama will most likely be the nominee. Does this mean that voting is as pointless for Democrats as it is for the Republicans? No. Whereas the Republicans chose a leader after just a few states, creating the momentum and pressure needed to force all competitors out of running and ensure that the remaining states' votes would not decide anyone but McCain, the Democrats are more...democratic. We count everyone's vote (unless they live in Michigan or Florida) up until the end. So please, go out and vote! Whether it's for Senator Obama, or that other person running, your vote DOES matter.
People whine about how unfair it is that the Superdelegates will decide the nomination. But that's simply not true. The Superdelegates just so happen to be voting last. The whole country had a chance to vote. If every state voted so that, come the Democratic Convention, one candidate had a clear lead, the Superdelegates wouldn't make a difference. Pretend, for a moment, that the Superdelegates vote first. Let's say they go 60/40 for Clinton, and THEN the rest of the country votes. Now, it appears as though the people decide the election. It's just how you look at it. If the Democrats can clearly come out in favor of someone, then the Superdelegates cannot override that support. In fact, they would most likely support the people's choice.
The point of the entire post: Obama will likely be the nominee, but we still all need to vote. OK, not everyone. Just people in North Carolina (115), Indiana (72), Puerto Rico (55), Oregon (52), Kentucky (51), West Virginia (28), Montana (16), South Dakota (15), and Guam (4). Wait - since when is Puerto Rico more important than 5 REAL states?
I don't actually understand why they are seen as a left-leaning news corporation at all. I mean, FOX News, that's clearly right-leaning. Why? You could say it's because their interviewers always grill liberals with tough questions, interrupt their answers, and paint them in extremely negative lights. You could say it's because they run stories based on E-mail rumors, that actually turn out to be bogus. So how do they stay in business as a leading source of news? That's for another post. But as far as CNN goes; I don't get it. CNN doesn't run false or misleading stories about Republicans (only the New York Times does that). CNN doesn't falsify information to make it seem like the environment is headed down a path of doom and the economy is tanking. Though, they don't need to falsify that information; everyone already knows it.
My point: CNN has virtually no bias, they simply state facts. Facts are disconcerting to conservatives, because facts show that Bush's approval rating is the lowest of all time, that global warming is real, that evolution is real, and that gravity is real. Yes, startling.
But back to the point of this post. CNN has an interesting page in their Politics section: The CNN Democratic Delegate Calculator. The way it works is, you slide little sliders for each remaining Democratic Primary state toward Obama or Clinton, to control the percentage of the vote you think they will get in that state. Delegates are then distributed based on your predictions, and you can see how the election could turn out. There is also a section for Superdelegates.
So, I was inspired to try a little experiment. I gave Hillary Clinton (currently behind in delegates) a 56% to 44% lead in every state, and even the same 56/44 in Superdelegates. After all, she won Pennsylvania by 10 percentage points, so let's assume, best case scenario (for her), she does about as well again in every remaining contest. This is extremely unlikely; she was expected to win PA by a lot of points anyway, and she's NOT expected to win everything else, but let's assume. So I gave her a very definite 8 point lead in everything, even Superdelegates (giving her 165 and leaving only 129 for Obama).
Guess what? Total scores: Clinton, 1,986 delegates. Obama, 2,040 delegates. Wow. Obama wins the nomination; Clinton doesn't even qualify.
"But, wait!" people scream, "That's not accurate! Superdelegates could go 15, 20, 25 points toward a certain candidate! We don't know what they'll do!" OK, fair enough. So I took on a second experiment.
Let's assume Clinton wins all the states by 8 points. Now, what does she need to win Superdelegates by to win? If she wins Superdelegates 65% to 35% - an amazing 30 point victory - guess what? Obama wins the nomination - by 2 delegates. So, in order to get close to Obama, Clinton needs 30% more Superdelegates than Obama has.
In light of these statistics, I believe I can say with fair certainty that Obama will be the Democratic Nominee. Unfortunately for John McCain, who probably doesn't know how to use a computer, let alone read a Blog or go on CNN, he won't know this until the convention in August. Until then, he has to split up his efforts between Clinton and Obama - and we all know how exhausting that is for a man of his age.
So, Obama will most likely be the nominee. Does this mean that voting is as pointless for Democrats as it is for the Republicans? No. Whereas the Republicans chose a leader after just a few states, creating the momentum and pressure needed to force all competitors out of running and ensure that the remaining states' votes would not decide anyone but McCain, the Democrats are more...democratic. We count everyone's vote (unless they live in Michigan or Florida) up until the end. So please, go out and vote! Whether it's for Senator Obama, or that other person running, your vote DOES matter.
People whine about how unfair it is that the Superdelegates will decide the nomination. But that's simply not true. The Superdelegates just so happen to be voting last. The whole country had a chance to vote. If every state voted so that, come the Democratic Convention, one candidate had a clear lead, the Superdelegates wouldn't make a difference. Pretend, for a moment, that the Superdelegates vote first. Let's say they go 60/40 for Clinton, and THEN the rest of the country votes. Now, it appears as though the people decide the election. It's just how you look at it. If the Democrats can clearly come out in favor of someone, then the Superdelegates cannot override that support. In fact, they would most likely support the people's choice.
The point of the entire post: Obama will likely be the nominee, but we still all need to vote. OK, not everyone. Just people in North Carolina (115), Indiana (72), Puerto Rico (55), Oregon (52), Kentucky (51), West Virginia (28), Montana (16), South Dakota (15), and Guam (4). Wait - since when is Puerto Rico more important than 5 REAL states?
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