CNN Democratic Delegate Calculator

CNN, known for it's left-leaning news, is, of course, my ideal source of information.

I don't actually understand why they are seen as a left-leaning news corporation at all. I mean, FOX News, that's clearly right-leaning. Why? You could say it's because their interviewers always grill liberals with tough questions, interrupt their answers, and paint them in extremely negative lights. You could say it's because they run stories based on E-mail rumors, that actually turn out to be bogus. So how do they stay in business as a leading source of news? That's for another post. But as far as CNN goes; I don't get it. CNN doesn't run false or misleading stories about Republicans (only the New York Times does that). CNN doesn't falsify information to make it seem like the environment is headed down a path of doom and the economy is tanking. Though, they don't need to falsify that information; everyone already knows it.

My point: CNN has virtually no bias, they simply state facts. Facts are disconcerting to conservatives, because facts show that Bush's approval rating is the lowest of all time, that global warming is real, that evolution is real, and that gravity is real. Yes, startling.

But back to the point of this post. CNN has an interesting page in their Politics section: The CNN Democratic Delegate Calculator. The way it works is, you slide little sliders for each remaining Democratic Primary state toward Obama or Clinton, to control the percentage of the vote you think they will get in that state. Delegates are then distributed based on your predictions, and you can see how the election could turn out. There is also a section for Superdelegates.

So, I was inspired to try a little experiment. I gave Hillary Clinton (currently behind in delegates) a 56% to 44% lead in every state, and even the same 56/44 in Superdelegates. After all, she won Pennsylvania by 10 percentage points, so let's assume, best case scenario (for her), she does about as well again in every remaining contest. This is extremely unlikely; she was expected to win PA by a lot of points anyway, and she's NOT expected to win everything else, but let's assume. So I gave her a very definite 8 point lead in everything, even Superdelegates (giving her 165 and leaving only 129 for Obama).

Guess what? Total scores: Clinton, 1,986 delegates. Obama, 2,040 delegates. Wow. Obama wins the nomination; Clinton doesn't even qualify.

"But, wait!" people scream, "That's not accurate! Superdelegates could go 15, 20, 25 points toward a certain candidate! We don't know what they'll do!" OK, fair enough. So I took on a second experiment.

Let's assume Clinton wins all the states by 8 points. Now, what does she need to win Superdelegates by to win? If she wins Superdelegates 65% to 35% - an amazing 30 point victory - guess what? Obama wins the nomination - by 2 delegates. So, in order to get close to Obama, Clinton needs 30% more Superdelegates than Obama has.

In light of these statistics, I believe I can say with fair certainty that Obama will be the Democratic Nominee. Unfortunately for John McCain, who probably doesn't know how to use a computer, let alone read a Blog or go on CNN, he won't know this until the convention in August. Until then, he has to split up his efforts between Clinton and Obama - and we all know how exhausting that is for a man of his age.

So, Obama will most likely be the nominee. Does this mean that voting is as pointless for Democrats as it is for the Republicans? No. Whereas the Republicans chose a leader after just a few states, creating the momentum and pressure needed to force all competitors out of running and ensure that the remaining states' votes would not decide anyone but McCain, the Democrats are more...democratic. We count everyone's vote (unless they live in Michigan or Florida) up until the end. So please, go out and vote! Whether it's for Senator Obama, or that other person running, your vote DOES matter.

People whine about how unfair it is that the Superdelegates will decide the nomination. But that's simply not true. The Superdelegates just so happen to be voting last. The whole country had a chance to vote. If every state voted so that, come the Democratic Convention, one candidate had a clear lead, the Superdelegates wouldn't make a difference. Pretend, for a moment, that the Superdelegates vote first. Let's say they go 60/40 for Clinton, and THEN the rest of the country votes. Now, it appears as though the people decide the election. It's just how you look at it. If the Democrats can clearly come out in favor of someone, then the Superdelegates cannot override that support. In fact, they would most likely support the people's choice.

The point of the entire post: Obama will likely be the nominee, but we still all need to vote. OK, not everyone. Just people in North Carolina (115), Indiana (72), Puerto Rico (55), Oregon (52), Kentucky (51), West Virginia (28), Montana (16), South Dakota (15), and Guam (4). Wait - since when is Puerto Rico more important than 5 REAL states?